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Dropshipping break-even calculator: ROAS, CPA and max CPC

Find out the most you can pay for a sale, and for a click, before an ad loses you money. Enter your price, supplier cost and fees. Free, no sign-up.

Berend Vrakking, founder. Last updated .

The calculator

Your product
€

What the customer pays for the item.

€

Leave at 0 if free or built into the price.

€

What your supplier charges for the item.

€

What you pay to get it delivered.

Fees and leakage
%

Default 2.9%. Edit to match your payment gateway.

€

Default €0.30. Edit to match your payment gateway.

%

Refunded orders lose revenue; supplier cost is already spent.

%

Leave at 0 if you have none. Exclude orders counted as refunds.

€

Fee per disputed order. Edit to match your gateway.

Your traffic
%

Example 2.0%. Use your own rate.

%

Example 0.8%. Use your own rate.

%

Optional: leave blank or use 0 for break-even. Fixed costs and tax excluded.

Your results

At €39.99 revenue per order you keep €18.26 before ads, after refunds and chargebacks. You can pay at most €18.26 per sale: your break-even ROAS is 2.19. On Google at 2.0% that is a max CPC of €0.37. On Meta at 0.8% it is €0.15.

Break-even CPA
€18.26
Profit per order after refunds and chargebacks, before ads
Break-even ROAS
2.19
Revenue ÷ break-even CPA
Target ROAS
326%
Revenue ÷ target CPA
Max CPC, Google
€0.37
At a 2% conversion rate
Max CPC, Meta
€0.15
At a 0.8% conversion rate
Revenue
€39.99
Payment fee
€1.46
Profit before leakage
€20.53
Refund allowance
€2.00
Chargeback allowance
€0.27
Break-even CPA
€18.26
Target CPA
€12.26
Test clicks, Google
150 (4.8% chance of no sale)
Test clicks, Meta
375 (4.9% chance of no sale)
Test spend at break-even CPC, either channel
€54.77

Why these test clicks? Read the guide

Use amounts excluding VAT or sales tax, and compare with ad revenue on the same basis. This model ignores fixed monthly costs and treats a refund as a full loss of revenue, with supplier, shipping and payment costs already spent. Refunds and chargebacks must not count the same order twice.

Illustrative data. Example rates only (Google 2.0%, Meta 0.8%). Use your own numbers from analytics. Traffic that converts worse has to be cheaper to break even.

Rule of thumb: test clicks = 3 ÷ conversion rate as a fraction, rounded up. It assumes independent clicks with a stable conversion rate and completed conversion lag. At the unrounded break-even CPC, the test costs about 3 × break-even CPA. No sale is a reason to pause and investigate, not proof that the product cannot sell. Check tracking first; one sale does not prove profitability.

Key takeaways

Break-even ROAS = revenue per order ÷ contribution before ads, after supplier costs, shipping, payment fees, refunds and chargebacks. Break-even CPA is that contribution; maximum CPC is break-even CPA × conversion rate.

Use amounts excluding VAT or sales tax, and compare with ad revenue on the same basis. This model ignores fixed monthly costs and treats a refund as a full loss of revenue, with supplier, shipping and payment costs already spent. Refunds and chargebacks must not count the same order twice.

  • The example product has a break-even CPA of €18.26 and a break-even ROAS of 2.19 after fees, refunds and chargebacks.
  • The free calculator gives separate Google and Meta CPC limits from your own conversion rates, with shareable inputs and no sign-up.
  • Test clicks = 3 ÷ conversion rate as a fraction, rounded up. This original decision rule assumes stable, independent clicks and completed conversion lag; it is not proof of profitability.

What your results mean

Profit before leakage
What is left after supplier cost, shipping and payment fees, before refunds and chargebacks.
Profit per order before ads / break-even CPA
What is left after fees, refunds and chargebacks. The most you can pay in ads per sale.
Break-even ROAS
Revenue ÷ break-even CPA. Your ads must beat this to make a profit.
Target CPA and target ROAS
The same limits, after keeping your target margin.
Max CPC, Google and Meta
Break-even CPA × conversion rate as a fraction. The most you can pay per click.
Test clicks
3 ÷ conversion rate as a fraction, rounded up. A rule of thumb for testing an ad with no sale.

Illustrative result for the start values: at €39.99 you keep €18.26 per order before ads, after refunds and chargebacks. You can pay at most €18.26 per sale: your break-even ROAS is 2.19. On Google at a 2.0% conversion rate that is a max CPC of €0.37. On Meta at 0.8% it is €0.15.

Example rates only (Google 2.0%, Meta 0.8%). Use your own numbers from analytics. Traffic that converts worse has to be cheaper to break even.

Rule of thumb: test clicks = 3 ÷ conversion rate as a fraction, rounded up. It assumes independent clicks with a stable conversion rate and completed conversion lag. At the unrounded break-even CPC, the test costs about 3 × break-even CPA. No sale is a reason to pause and investigate, not proof that the product cannot sell. Check tracking first; one sale does not prove profitability.

How it is calculated

  1. Revenue = selling price + shipping charged.
  2. Payment fee = fee % × revenue + fixed fee.
  3. Profit before leakage = revenue − supplier cost − shipping cost − payment fee.
  4. Break-even CPA = profit before leakage − refund rate × revenue − chargeback rate × (revenue + chargeback fee).
  5. Break-even ROAS = revenue ÷ break-even CPA.
  6. Target CPA = break-even CPA − target margin × revenue. Target ROAS = revenue ÷ target CPA.
  7. Max CPC = break-even CPA × conversion rate. Enter percentages as fractions in these formulas (2% = 0.02).

Use amounts excluding VAT or sales tax, and compare with ad revenue on the same basis. This model ignores fixed monthly costs and treats a refund as a full loss of revenue, with supplier, shipping and payment costs already spent. Refunds and chargebacks must not count the same order twice.

Worked example

Line, Amount
LineAmount
Selling price€39.99
Supplier cost−€14.00
Shipping cost−€4.00
Payment fee (2.9% + €0.30)−€1.46
Profit before leakage€20.53
Refunds (5% of orders)−€2.00
Chargebacks (0.5%, €15 fee)−€0.27
Break-even CPA€18.26
Break-even ROAS2.19

Illustrative data. A €39.99 product with a €14.00 supplier cost and €4.00 shipping. The shortcut, price ÷ (price − supplier cost), gives 1.54. Running ads at ROAS 1.8 would feel safe and lose about €4 on every order. Calculations use unrounded amounts; displayed amounts are rounded.

What to do with your result

Break-even ROAS above 4?
Margins are thin. Try raising the price, cutting shipping cost, bundling, or dropping the product.
Max CPC lower than the clicks you are buying?
The channel is too expensive for this product at this conversion rate. Improve the page before you add budget.
Several products?
Each has its own break-even ROAS. One campaign target for all of them can hide products that lose money.

Frequently asked questions

What is break-even ROAS for dropshipping?

Revenue per order divided by contribution before ads gives your break-even ROAS. Subtract supplier costs, shipping, payment fees, expected refunds and chargebacks first. The illustrative €39.99 order leaves €18.26 before advertising, so it needs ROAS 2.19 to cover those costs. Fixed monthly costs and tax are excluded.

What is break-even CPA?

Break-even CPA is the maximum advertising cost per sale that covers the order costs entered here. It equals contribution before ads after expected refunds and chargebacks. In the example, the limit is €18.26 per sale. Spend less to leave money towards overheads and profit; fixed monthly costs are excluded.

Is break-even ROAS the same for Google and Meta?

Break-even ROAS is the same on Google and Meta when product costs and the revenue basis are the same. Maximum CPC changes with each channel’s conversion rate. At a €18.26 break-even CPA, a 2% rate permits about €0.37 per click; a 0.8% rate permits about €0.15. These rates are illustrative.

Should shipping be included?

Include both shipping revenue and shipping costs in the calculation. Enter the amount the customer pays separately from what your supplier charges for delivery. Free shipping means zero shipping revenue, while the delivery cost remains. Use the same tax basis for these amounts and the advertising revenue you compare.

Does it include my Shopify plan and apps?

The calculator excludes your Shopify plan, apps and other fixed monthly costs. To allocate them, divide the monthly total by monthly orders and add that amount to supplier cost. Recalculate when order volume changes. The target margin shown here is after advertising but before unallocated fixed costs and tax.

Why did my ROAS look fine but I lost money?

A healthy revenue ROAS can still hide a loss because revenue is not contribution profit. Supplier costs, shipping, fees, refunds and chargebacks reduce what can pay for advertising. Compare each product with its own break-even ROAS, using the same revenue basis and a completed conversion window before judging performance.

Next step

This calculator works for one product. If you sell hundreds, Product Metrics segments products by advertising clicks and return against your target, then writes each segment to a Merchant Center label your configured Google Shopping campaigns use. Connect margins to judge performance by POAS.